331016
Health Impacts of Transportation and the Built Environment: Application of a novel dynamic modeling approach in Raleigh, North Carolina
Monday, November 2, 2015
: 2:50 p.m. - 3:10 p.m.
Theodore Mansfield,
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC
Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson, PhD,
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC
Transportation impacts community health through many pathways. Three health risks related to transportation—exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from automobiles, built environments that discourage active living, and road injuries—are associated with approximately 130,000 premature deaths each year in the United States. This paper will present an innovative, dynamic modeling approach for predicting the impact of changes in the built environment on these three health risks. The paper will present the results of a case study application of the model to estimate the relative impacts of each of the three risks (PM2.5 exposure, physical inactivity, and traffic crashes) on health in a suburban neighborhood of 11,000 residents near downtown Raleigh, North Carolina. The model estimates that under status quo conditions, 13.6 (95% CI: 20.9–6.5), 13.9 (29.2–1.3), and 6.5 (7.9–5.5) premature deaths will occur by 2020 due to PM2.5 exposure, physical inactivity, and traffic crashes, respectively. The three health risks considered in this paper may respond in competing directions to changes in the built environment. For example, compact built environments that support active living may decrease health risks from physical inactivity; however, they may also increase health risks associated with PM2.5 exposure. The model presented in this paper provides quantitative estimates of health impacts associated with these competing risks, thereby filling a critical gap in predicting health impacts of changes to the built environment. The case study application demonstrates how quantitative health impact assessment can support the consideration of health in all policies related to transportation and community health.
Learning Areas:
Environmental health sciences
Public health or related public policy
Public health or related research
Learning Objectives:
Demonstrate how quantitative methods can be used to compare the relative magnitude of health impacts from competing risks resulting from changes in the built environment.
Keyword(s): Transportation, Built Environment
Presenting author's disclosure statement:Qualified on the content I am responsible for because: I have worked on built environment and public health issues related to transportation throughout my doctoral program. Related to this work, I have published first-author papers in peer-reviewed journals including Risk Analysis and the Transportation Research Record. My research interests include developing quantitative methods that may be applied within the Health Impact Assessment framework to improve health considerations related to built environment policy decisions.
Any relevant financial relationships? No
I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines,
and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed
in my presentation.
