Using social cognitive theory to predict intention to smoke in middle school students

Background: High smoking rates among youth continue to be a public health problem.  The initiation of smoking usually starts around middle school. It is important to understand the determinants of smoking in this age group.  Therefore the purpose of this study was to use social cognitive theory to predict the frequency and intention for not smoking among middle school students.

Methods: The study utilized a cross-sectional design (n=163). The sample size was calculated apriori using G*Power. A valid and reliable 38-item questionnaire was developed with the help of a panel of six experts. The constructs of social cognitive theory reified in the study were expectations (multiplicative score of outcome expectations and outcome expectancies), self-efficacy for not smoking, self-efficacy in overcoming barriers for not smoking, self-control for not smoking, environment, and emotional coping. The Cronbach’s alpha for all subscales was found to be over 0.70.

Results: A majority of respondents were nonsmokers (97.5%). Frequency for smoking was predicted by environment not supportive to smoking (p < 0.000) and emotional coping for not smoking (p < 0.001) and the model accounted for 20% of the variance. Intent to smoke was predicted by emotional coping for not smoking (p < 0.000), environment not supportive to smoking (p < 0.001), expectations for not smoking (p < 0.003), and self-control for not smoking (p < 0.017) and the model accounted for  36% of the variance.

Conclusions: Social cognitive theory is a robust model for predicting smoking behavior and must be utilized in interventions.