Controlled evaluation of the impact of the New York City ban on the sale of flavored non-cigarette tobacco products

Background: The 2009 New York City (NYC) law banning sale of flavored non-cigarette tobacco products, including cigars and smokeless tobacco but excluding e-cigarettes, was implemented in January 2011. This is the first study of the policy’s impact on tobacco product sales using data from convenience and food, drug, and mass merchandise stores within NYC and a reference area. Methods: We employed an interrupted time-series comparison design to evaluate changes in sales of cigars, smokeless tobacco, and roll-your-own and pipe tobacco in NYC and 10 proximal counties in the NY market area from January 2010 through January 2014.  Scanner data on tobacco product sales from 891 NYC stores and 1,665 similar comparison-area stores were analyzed for changes over time and differences across areas with ordinary least squares regression. Results: Over the study period, flavored tobacco sales in NYC decreased by 35.0% from a base of 43,059 units, while unflavored tobacco sales increased 71.3% from 47,645 units. In the comparison area, flavored sales increased 16.9%, from 284,416 units, and unflavored sales increased 73.1% from 208,690 units, during this period. Prior to ban implementation, the proportion of flavored non-cigarette tobacco product sales was 15.8% lower in NYC than in the comparison area (p<0.01); after implementation, the proportion was 26.0% lower in NYC (p<0.01). Conclusions: The NYC ban has had a specific, sustained impact on flavored non-cigarette tobacco product sales. Although the increase in flavored product sales in proximal counties may indicate a rise in cross-border sales, it generally reflects an upward secular trend in flavored tobacco sales seen nationally.