An Ecological Analysis on Factors associated with Adult HIV prevalence in 53 African Countries

Introduction: HIV continues to be a major global public health issue especially in the African region that has an estimated 27 million people with the disease. It has become an epidemic that spreads rapidly within regions, countries and continents and has claimed more than 1 million lives in Africa. Few studies have ecologically examined socioeconomic and reproductive related factors associated with adult HIV prevalence. This study aims to bridge the gap.

Methods: An ecological analysis was conducted using the latest data from credible international agencies. Data of 53 African countries were analyzed by SPSS. A Pearson Correlation and stepwise Linear Regression were conducted using economic, poverty, literacy, adolescent fertility, child marriage, maternal mortality indicators to identify the correlates of adult HIV prevalence rate.

Results: HIV prevalence among adults is highly statistically correlated with literacy rates female adults in 2005-2011 (.60), literacy rates male adults in 2005-2011 (.48), GNI per capita in PPP terms in 2011 (.46), and child marriages in 1998-2007 (-.38). Stepwise Linear Regression determined that 34% of HIV infections are associated with the literacy rates among adult females in African countries.

Conclusion: HIV prevalence rates have continued to increase in Africa with women having the highest rates. This study results show adult female’s literacy rate is a unique attribute to adult HIV prevalence rate. Efforts to increase adult women’s basic reading, writing and numeracy skills are highly recommended.