Predicting Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Series Completion Rates: The Case of New York State Counties

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and HPV-associated cervical cancers constitute a significant public health concern on national and global levels.  The CDC estimates that 79 million Americans are currently infected with HPV, giving rise to 14 million new infections each year.

Despite the availability of two FDA-approved vaccines, HPV vaccine rates lag behind other routine adolescent vaccinations with only one third of all adolescents in the United States having received the full dose series.

The purpose of this study is to examine socio-economic, demographic, policy, and provider service factors that influence county level prevalence of HPV vaccination rates for 13-17 year old females in New York State.  To this end, a large data set was built and analyzed.  A preliminary stepwise regression analysis revealed that high school drop rates, rurality, and the number of MDs per 1000 population were significant predictors of the completion of 3 dose HPV vaccination rates for this group of females in New York State counties.

Since the HPV vaccination prevents 70% of cervical cancers and 90% of genital warts, any increase in vaccination rates will not only first and foremost save lives by preventing cancers, but also can decrease healthcare costs incurred during the treatment regimens for both genital warts and cancers.  These results may infer some important economic and policy implications.  Based on these findings, conclusions will include potential economic analyses as well as policy recommendations.