Colorado River and climate change: Averting social and environmental disaster

In the semi-arid west, having a reliable water source has been a fundamental limitation to life. For centuries, the Colorado River has been the lifeblood of southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico inhabitants providing not only an essential nutrient for life, drinking water, but economic security with jobs in farming and fishing as well as environmental sanctuary for numerous plant and animal species. Given the system is already under water stress and climate change could reduce the flow further, the future of the river, however, is uncertain. Preliminary findings show annual runoff is expected to decrease, but to what level is level unknown. Estimates predict that a 10% reduction in flow could to yield a 50% shortage probability by 2040 and a 20% reduction could yield a 50% shortage probability by 2025. Yet, a 5% reduction is expected to cause shortages that violate legal allocation agreements furthering political tensions and environmental degradation in the United States and Mexico. Thus, it is necessary to determine what consequences such reductions will have on the Colorado River, and what measures should be implements to improve our capacity to cope with potential impacts. This analysis will explore the challenges climate change could create for water security in the Colorado River Basin with a focus on the social and environmental ramifications for the U.S. and Mexico. Environmental consequences will be explored using GIS and remote sensing, and social dimensions, such as political, legal, economic and cultural issues, with literature reviews and meta-analysis.