Estimating the cost of violence in Glasgow, Scotland

Background

Violence is associated with a significant health, social, and financial burden in Scotland. However, the cost estimates for violence have been based on dated figures from England and Wales. The current study reports the first attempt to develop cost estimates for violent crimes in Scotland.

Method

Glasgow is used as a pilot site given its disproportionate contribution to the overall burden of violence in Scotland. A comprehensive costing technique was used to examine the per crime cost of homicide, serious assault, and common assault for each financial year from 2002/03 to 2009/10. Costs included lost output, justice costs, incarceration costs, and intangible costs. Data was obtained from the Scottish Government, the literature, and other relevant organizations. To examine the application of these estimates a preliminary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was undertaken on a gang violence prevention initiative in Glasgow, the Community Initiative to Reduce Violence (CIRV).

Results

A range of estimates were calculated for each year (varying according to the method of calculating intangible costs) for cost per homicide (e.g., 2009/10: £3.1m–£10.9m) serious assault (e.g., 2009/10: £7,048–£11,262) and common assault (e.g., 2009/10: £100,307–£114,234). Using these estimates, the preliminary CBA indicated that CIRV may have cost-saving potential.

Discussion

Homicide and serious violence were found to account for the smallest percentage of crimes (e.g., 2009/10: 9% and 0.11%, respectively) and largest percentage of costs (e.g., 2009/10: 65% and 18.20%, respectively). Understanding the financial impact of violence will enable economic evaluations of violence prevention initiatives to inform the allocation of increasingly scarce resources.