Identifying and mapping impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities in San Diego

Introduction: Global climate change poses serious risks to communities. There is a growing body of evidence that suggests that low income, minorities and elderly populations are especially susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Understanding existing community health risks and population vulnerabilities to climate change at the regional and community level is a core need when planning for future climate risks and community adaptation plans. The goal of this project is to develop new data that will help to fill in critical gaps in our understanding and community capacity to prepare the most vulnerable communities for future changes, which will most likely impact them first and worst. Methods: A population vulnerability assessment utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the Environmental Justice Screening Method (EJSM) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) was conducted to identify and map those populations most vulnerable to climate change impact in San Diego County, California. Using census tract level data, the models synthesized 31 different socioeconomic variables. Adapted climate change metrics such as air conditioning ownership, land cover characteristics, access to transportation, flood risk, and wildfire risk were also added to these models and a cumulative impact score was determined. Maps illustrating current and future climate change scenarios were generated indicating the communities at a higher risk to climate change. Results: Several communities in San Diego County were found to be at a high or elevated risk to the negative impacts of climate change, including heat strokes, displacement and increased illness. Recommendations: Policies and plans to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these communities must be discussed and implemented. New initiatives should be developed that integrate the priorities and needs of vulnerable communities as well as include community leaders in developing strategies to address these needs.