Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #113677

Scott J. Leischow, PhD, Tobacco Control Research Branch, National Cancer Institute, Executive Plaza North, Room 4038, 6130 Executive Boulevard, MSC 7337, Bethesda, MD 20892-7337, 301-496-8584, sleischow@azcc.arizona.edu

Tobacco researchers operate in a paradigm in which processes are studied in isolation, and factors external to a process are treated as unrelated or unimportant. Further, hypotheses often specify unidirectional relationships under the presumption that causes are not influenced by effects. Systems thinking evolved in response to this oversimplified view of the world. It involves moving away from the analysis of isolated events and their causes toward focusing on the relationships that exist within a system as a whole. The objective of this symposium is to provide a primer on systems thinking and its application to the study and evaluation of tobacco control systems. First, Dr. Levy will discuss the role of dynamic simulation models in evaluating tobacco control policies, smoking rates, and health outcomes. Next, using data from the Health and Retirement Study, Dr. Shaw will demonstrate how econometric methods may be used to generate and test models of complex systems. Dr. Luke will then discuss the use of network analysis as a tool for describing the complexity of tobacco control systems. Dr. Mendez will present the results of a dynamic simulation conducted to examine the relative impact of different types of smoking control policies on mortality and medical costs. Finally, Dr. Valente will discuss a study of a network approach for selecting peer leaders to assist in implementing school-based tobacco prevention programs. Dr. Leischow will moderate questions from the audience and discuss how federal agencies, including the National Cancer Institute, are currently promoting systems thinking in tobacco research.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of this session, participants will be able to

• Develop a conceptual understanding of dynamic systems, discuss the methods that may be used to study their behaviors, and articulate the relative strengths and weaknesses of these methods.
• Describe several dynamic systems that are relevant to the study of tobacco control.
• Understand the concept of dynamic feedback and how a change in a policy or variable at a particular point in time may impact other variables in the system at later points in time.

Keywords: Tobacco Control, Evaluation

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commercial supporters.