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Chih-Ping Chou, PhD, Bin Xie, MD, Xiaowei Liu, MS, and Lingyun Ji. Department of preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, 1000 S. Fremont Avenue, Unit 8, Alhambra, CA 91803, (626)457-6649, cchou@usc.edu
Taking advantage of the richness of cross-sequential public domain data, we investigated the secular trend of monthly smoking behaviors among California adolescents aged 12 to 17 years. Annual data from 1994 to 2002 were retrieved from the California Tobacco Survey (CTS). Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Modeling approach was used to detect effects of age, temporal period, and birth cohorts on secular trend using the GENMOD procedure in SAS software. The APC approach has been widely used to summarize the secular trends in vital rates in epidemiological studies. Likelihood ratio test was adopted for model comparison. The statistic of deviance/degree of freedom (df) ratio was used as a measure of the goodness of fit with a value of close to 1 set as the satisfactory criteria. Results indicated that AP model was sufficient enough to describe the secular trend of monthly smoking for female and males with deviance/df ratios of 0.79 and 0.88 respectively. Estimated effects increased as age increased. Starting at age 14 years, female experienced relatively smaller age effects than male. The estimated period effects stayed flat around zero until 1997, and then decreased consistently in male and female. Our findings were consistent with previous results from graphical approach using national data, and help better understand the trend of smoking behaviors in adolescents. Further studies regarding trends in adolescent smoking and associated risk factors can have strong implications for policy on the intensity, timing, and focus of tobacco use prevention programs.
Learning Objectives:
Keywords: Adolescents, Smoking
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.