|
|
|
|
|
Andreas Muller, PhD, Department of Health Services Administration, UALR, Ross Hall 202, 2801 S. University Ave., Little Rock, AR 72204-1099, 501-569-8368, axmuller@ualr.edu
Purpose: On July 1, 2000 the State of Florida permitted adult motorcyclist traveling without wearing helmets provided the motorcyclist had liability insurance of $10,000. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of weakening Florida’s helmet law over the first 30 months. Data: The NHTSA definition of motorcycle occupant death is employed and two time series are examined: (1) monthly motorcycle occupant deaths and (2) percent helmet use of motorcycle occupants involved in fatal crashes. FARS data for 78 months before and 30 months after the legal intervention are studied. Method: ARIMA models adding zero-order, or first-order transfer functions assess the size and distribution of law change impact. Results: The motorcycle helmet law change appears to have permanent effects on the number of motorcycle deaths and helmet use in fatal crashes. Motorcycle occupant deaths increased by 47% (CI 95%: 16.6-85.2) and helmet use in fatal crashes decreased by 36% (CI95%: -42.7 to -29.7) in the first year after law change. Motorcyclist deaths are estimated to be 60% (CI 95%: 32.1-92.5) higher and helmet use is 45 percentage points lower (CI95%: -50.2 to –41.0) thirty months after weakening the law. Discussion: Since Florida motorcycle registrations increased by only 35.4% between 2000 and 2002, the increase in motorcycle deaths is unlikely to be a reflection of increased travel. Conclusions: Restricting traffic law impact assessments to short time frames may result in underestimation of the effect of law changes. The age-restriction of the Florida motorcycle helmet law should be revoked.
Learning Objectives: After the presentation the audience will be able
Keywords: Motor Vehicles, Mortality
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.