Yann Derriennic, Abt Associates, 4800 Montgomery Lane, Suite 600, Bethesda, MD 20814 and Beaura Mensah, Partners for Health Reformsplus Project, 4800 Montgomery Lane, Suite 600, Bethesda, MD 20814, 301 347-5346, Beaura_Mensah@abtassoc.com.

As new anti-malarial treatment regimens become available, countries need structured cost information to inform policy-making and budgetary planning. This presentation will introduce a model that was developed to estimate the financial requirements for sub-Saharan Africa to change the first line drug for uncomplicated malaria from chloroquine and/or sulfadoxine-pyrimetamine to higher cost Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies. The major determinants include the number of malaria episodes, the number of episodes treated with modern drugs, the evolution of ACT prices, and the speed of ACT uptake or utilization. The results are a range of incremental costs for ACT drugs. The costs are calculated using likely ACT international price scenarios, and do not include all other costs associated with the transition in a widely used drug program such as sensitization, development of materials, training of providers, or public information campaigns. The model covers 10 years. To illustrate the financing impact of the introduction of ACTs on the country level, the model is applied to Zambia and Ghana.

The model illustrates the complexity of forecasting the financing of ACTs. It is more than price times quantity, with estimates of consumer level prices, and thus of uptake, proving to be key determinants. Due to wide variations in estimates of malaria episodes, results for SSA are very broad. Country level results have a narrower range and demonstrate that ACT financing needs can be meet within current health resources. Policy implications will be discussed.

Learning Objectives: