|
|
|
|
|
Nekisha E. Lakins, MA, Monique B. Williams, PhD, and Gerald D. Williams, DEd. Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System, NIH/NIAAA, CSR, Incorporated, 2107 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1000, Arlington, VA 22201, (703) 741-7157, nlakins@csrincorporated.com
The National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) publishes annual surveillance reports on estimates of apparent per capita alcohol consumption (PCC) at the national and state level. In these reports, gallons of sold or shipped beer are converted to PCC using an ethanol conversion coefficient (ECC) of 4.5%. Recent consideration of this convention has suggested that the average ethanol content of beer has increased since 1995, from 4.61 to 4.66 percent (Kerr and Greenfield, 2003). The objective of this study was to examine the sensitivity of total PCC to small changes in the ECC for beer. Using data compiled from 1995–2000 state and industry sources, total PCC was estimated for each year and state using varying ECCs for beer. The PCC estimates were then ranked by deciles at the state level and the rankings were compared to those published in NIAAA’s surveillance reports. National trends were also compared to those published in the reports to determine what magnitude of change in the ECC for beer would change the trends in total PCC. Preliminary results indicate that total PCC is moderately sensitive to general changes in the ECC for beer. An increase in the ECC for beer from 4.5% to 4.635% (mid-point of the estimates by Kerr and Greenfield) resulted in a 1.5–2.0% increase (e.g., from 2.18 to 2.22 gallons in 2000) in the total national PCC. Further, when ranking states by total PCC, this increase changed the rank order for 0 to 3 states per year.
Learning Objectives:
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.