The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #72692

Paul D Mowery, MS, Statistics, Research Triangle Institute, 2951 Flowers Road, Suite 119, Atlanta, GA 30341, 770-234-5010, pdm@rti.org, Corinne Husten, MD, Office on Smoking and Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, N.E., Mailstop K-50, Atlanta, GA 30341, and Lei Li, PhD, Statistics, Resarch Triangle Institute, PO Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709.

This life table modeling study presents projections of U.S. smoking attributable mortality during 2000 to 2020. Cause-specific mortality from lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease,and stroke were studied. Mortality from smoking was compared under 2 different scenarios. The first assumes that initiation, cessation, and relapse rates existing in the U.S. in the 1990's will continue through 2020. The second assumes that rates will change in the direction of reduced smoking prevalence to the extent necessary to achieve the U.S. "Healthy People 2010" goal of 12% adult smoking prevalence. Under Scenario 2, approximately 200,000 female and 220,000 male smoking attributable deaths could be avoided. These 420,000 deaths represent about 8 million potential years of life saved over the period 2000 to 2020. Methods used in the model to achieve the "Healthy People 2010" target adult smoking prevalence of 12% are discussed.

Learning Objectives:

• Recognize the impact of smoking on premature mortality from lung cancer, COPD, CHD and stroke.
• Describe how life table modeling can be used to evaluate the effect of interventions on future mortality attributable to smoking.
• Discuss the adult smoking prevalence reduction goals of "Healthy People 2010".

Keywords: Tobacco Control, Tobacco Policy

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.