The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #69289

William G. Johnson, PhD and Amy M. Bartels, MPH. School of Health Administration and Policy and Department of Economics, Arizona State University, Box 874506, Tempe, AZ 85287-4506, 480-965-7442, william.g.johnson@asu.edu

Introduction: As people age the likelihood of becoming disabled and the average severity of the disabling condition increases sharply. The first members of the baby boom generation are now approaching the ages when the incidence of disability increases. The increases are likely to overwhelm public and private insurance and the welfare plans that serve persons with disabilities unless the plans are significantly changed.

Methods: This study, using data from the 1996 SIPP Panel, projects the future population of persons with disabilities under the assumption that the incidence of disability does not change. The data are also used to describe the relative importance of different public and private plans as sources of income for persons with disabilities.

Principal Findings: Nearly 27 million Americans ages 50 through 69 will be disabled in 2020, or slightly less than twice the number in 1997. We estimate that by 2020, there will be approximately 3.3 million severely disabled persons who are unable to work but who will not receive disability benefits or retirement benefits.

Conclusion: The influx of baby boomer applicants on the disability system will increase the average duration from application to final decision. The delays will impose substantial costs on the households of persons with disabilities and increase political pressure for changes in the system. Rather than attempt to “reform” a system when it is in crisis, it would be appropriate to make changes now that anticipate and avoid the problems associated with the aging of the baby boomers.

Learning Objectives:

• 1.Describe the paths from illness or injury to disability and the manner in which the consequences of disability are addressed by private and social insurance and welfare plans.
• 2.Understand the impact on the disability programs due to the expected population increases in the next twenty-five years of Older Americans.

Keywords: Disability, Aging

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.