The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #64427

Marina Dronsky, PhD, UCSF, Center for the Health Professions, 3333 California Street, #410, San Francisco, CA 94118, 415-514-3788, mdrnsky@itsa.ucsf.edu, SA Chapman, PhD, Center for the Health Professions, University of California, San Francisco, 3333 California Street, Suite 410, San Francisco, CA 94118, and Robert Newcomer, PhD, DSBS, University of California San Francisco, 3333 California St., Suite 455, San Francisco, CA 94143-0612.

Demand for Long-Term Care and Implications on Geriatric Workforce.

The objectives of this HRSA funded project were to review models projecting the demand for long-term care, to identify successful long-term care approaches in selected U.S. states and internationally, and to discuss implications of the estimated demand on projections about the future long-term care workforce. Study methods included key informant interviews, literature search, data collection and analysis, demand models analysis and critique. There are two widely used comprehensive long-term care demand projection models, Brookings/ICF Long-Term Care Financing Model (United States) and model developed in Great Britain. The demand for long-term care is affected by the relative preference for institutional care and non-institutional/community care. This factor has not been fully accounted for in existing models, which assume continuing utilization rates. These models do not project labor supply needs. This is a serious limitation as recruitment and retention of a direct care workforce has become a critical issue in long-term care. Federal and state governmental efforts are beginning to direct attention to initiatives, training/mentoring programs focused on direct care workers. At the conclusion of the session, the participant (learner) in this session will be able to: 1) Articulate the weaknesses of the projection models due to the complexity of the data collection mechanisms and simplicity of the assumptions. 2) Identify long-term care development trends in the U.S. and abroad.

Learning Objectives:

• At the conclusion of the session, the participant (learner) in this session will be able to:
• 1) Articulate the weaknesses of the projection models due to the complexity of the data collection mechanisms and simplicity of the assumptions.
• 2) Identify long-term care development trends in the U.S. and abroad.

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.