In the economist Gary Becker’s theory of rational addiction, “... a good is potentially addictive if increases in past consumption increase current consumption” or, as Shakespeare wrote in Two Gentlemen from Verona, “Use doth breed a habit.” Building upon this criterion of addiction, we use seven waves of annual panel data collected from 883 sample adolescents in a large U.S. midwestern city to analyze (1) variability among adolescents in the susceptibility to cigarette addiction and (2) predisposing factors that condition the transition from experimental to regular smoking. By applying multilevel statistical models to repeated measurements of self-reported smoking frequency, we show (1) past smoking is the most powerful predictor of present smoking; (2) there exists substantial variability among adolescents in the “cigarette dependence curves” linking present to past smoking; (3) most such curves have an inflection point, a “threshold of addiction,” beyond which smoking frequency accelerates in the direction of daily smoking; (4) psychosocial risk factors explain about one-third of the inter-adolescent variability in cigarette dependence; and (5) the factors that predict whether or not an adolescent experiments with cigarettes– including friends' smoking, maternal smoking, parental substance abuse disorders, low parental educational attainment, fewer than two parents at home, and poor academic performance– are largely the same factors that predict the continuation of smoking given prior initiation. We interpret the “threshold of addiction” in terms of the body’s developing tolerance for nicotine and discuss the implications of the findings for cigarette prevention programs.
Learning Objectives: (1) The research design and statistical methods make possible a detailed analysis of the dependence of present on past smoking and also hold promise for research on other addictive substances; (2) adolescents vary greatly in their susceptibility to cigarette addiction– as measured using a model of the dependence of present on past smoking– after statistically controlling for the most important psychosocial covariates.that have been identified in previous research.
Keywords: Tobacco, Adolescent Health
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.