State tobacco control programs have been shown to be effective at reducing tobacco use. Other studies suggest reductions in cigarette consumption may already be having an impact of lung cancer and heart disease mortality. This paper extends the previous research by quantifying the links between tobacco control funding, reductions in cigarette consumption, and subsequent declines in mortality and associated economic costs. A two-stage multivariate regression model was used to first quantify the effect of annual tobacco control expenditures in California, and excise tax rates, on per capita cigarette consumption. Stage two measures the effects on mortality rate changes associated with changes in per capita consumption. Data from ACS’s Cancer Prevention Study (CPS-II) are used to estimate the lag between changes in per capita consumption and lung cancer and coronary heart disease mortality rates. Other salient variables are included in the models as controls. The model results are then translated into the total number of lung cancer and heart disease deaths averted as a result of changes in expenditures since inception of the California program. Averted health care expenditures and indirect productivity losses are then calculated. This results of this research will help inform policy makers and tobacco control advocates of the health and economic benefits associated with comprehensive tobacco control programs.
Learning Objectives: 1. Understand the impact of tobacco use on health 2. Articulate the analytic strategy for relating changes in mortality to changes in tobacco use 3. Develop a comprehensive tobacco control program that will impact tobacco-related mortality.
Keywords: Mortality, Tobacco
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.