Age-period-cohort (APC) model has been used in analyzing trends of various vital rates. The APC model can help explain changes in observed time trends in terms of effects due to age of the subjects, time period, and the birth year of the subjects. Few studies have used this method in analyzing trends of adolescent cigarette use. Using data from the California Tobacco Survey and the California Youth Tobacco Survey, we analyzed the trends of adolescent never smokers in California during the 1990-1999 period. 28,281 randomly sampled subjects aged 12-17 (mean=14.4, SD=1.69, 50.3% males) were included. Annual percentage of never smokers by age was computed and converted to the mid-year. The computed percentages were plotted for a direct inspection of general trends and potential age, period and cohort effects. Then the data were analyzed using APC modeling. Approximately 60% boys and 66% girls were never smokers in 1990; and the percentages went up to 69% for boys and 70% for girls in 1999. The plots of the percent never smokers by age group over birth year suggest existence of age, period and cohort effects. In addition to age effect, the APC modeling analyses indicated that cohorts born during 1975-1977 and 1981-1987 periods contributed to the time trend, and so did the period effects from 1990 to 1992 and 1996 to 1999. The findings are consistent with changes in tobacco control effects over time in California, and suggest that the APC model is appropriate for the analysis. See N/A
Learning Objectives: needs learning objectives
Keywords: Adolescents, Tobacco Control
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: N/A
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.