A Markov model framework is used to forecast the number of people with diabetes and diabetes prevalence rates in the United States for age-, race/ethnicity-, and gender-specific cohorts up to 2050. In any given year, members of a cohort may be in one of three states: no diabetes, diabetes, or death. The transition probabilities that determine movement between these states vary by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and time. To directly predict the number of individuals in each state in each year, the model incorporates data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, the relative risk of mortality from diabetes, and U.S. Census Bureau projections of current population, live births, net migration, and the general mortality rate.
For the entire U.S. population, the likely increase in diabetes prevalence is from 4.15% in 2000 to 8.89% in 2050, with approximately 35 million people having diagnosed diabetes in 2050. Non-Hispanic blacks and people aged 65-74 are projected to have the highest prevalence rates in 2050--11.76% and 24.59% respectively. Females are predicted to have a prevalence of 9.87% in 2050 compared to 7.81% for males.
These forecasts provide plausible scenarios in diabetes prevalence based on anticipated changes in the demographics of the United States and derived from a model that directly projects flows into (and out of) the diabetes state. Findings suggest that the disease burden and associated costs of diabetes are likely to increase at least 3 fold in the next 50 years.
Learning Objectives: Participants will be able to describe and discuss the likely increases in the number of people with diagnosed diabetes and diabetes prevalence in the U.S. through the year 2050.
Keywords: Diabetes,
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.