3113.0: Monday, October 22, 2001 - 3:15 PM

Abstract #25020

Medical Costs Associated with Diabetes in the US.: Forecasts Through 2050

Amanda A. Honeycutt, PhD1, James P. Boyle, PhD2, Kristine R. Broglio, BA3, Thomas J Hoerger, PhD4, Theodore J. Thompson, MS2, and Linda S. Geiss, MA2. (1) Health, Social, and Economics Research, RTI, 2951 Flowers Road South, Suite 119, Atlanta, GA 30341, (770) 234-5014, honeycutt@rti.org, (2) Division of Diabetes Translation, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, NE, Mailstop K-68, Atlanta, GA 30341, (3) Research Triangle Institute, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, (4) Center for Economics Research, Research Triangle Institute, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Hobbs Bldg, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2194

To generate per-person estimates of diabetes costs, we used data from the 1996 MEPS—a recent source of information about U.S. households’ use of health services and medical expenditures. We employed a four-equation modeling approach to generate per-person expenditure estimates that are less sensitive to data outliers than are sample means. The model makes use of the following characteristics of the medical expenditure distribution: a large proportion of individuals use no health services during the year; the distribution of expenses among users tends to be highly skewed, with most observations clustered at low values; and the expenditure distribution is different for users of inpatient services relative to users of outpatient services only.

Findings reveal that people with diabetes have medical expenses that are almost $5,900 higher per year than expenses for people without diabetes. Excess medical spending for people with diabetes ranges from about $1,300 for females younger than 19 years to $6,000 for males 75 years and older, and increases as individuals with diabetes age. Recent studies have shown that about 11.4 million people in the U.S. had diagnosed diabetes in 2000 and that aggregate medical costs associated with diabetes were approximately $64 billion. If, as recent forecasts indicate, the number of people with diabetes rises to 25 million in 2025 and 35 million in 2050, the medical costs of diabetes will be approximately $149 billion in 2025 and $207 billion in 2050.

Learning Objectives: Participants will be able to describe and discuss the likely increases in the number of people with diagnosed diabetes and diabetes prevalence in the U.S. through the year 2050.

Keywords: Diabetes,

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

Handout (.ppt format, 228.0 kb)

The 129th Annual Meeting of APHA