Objectives: To describe survival trends and identify factors that predict survival for persons diagnosed with AIDS in Los Angeles County. Methods: The study population included all patients diagnosed with AIDS in Los Angeles County between 1985-1998 (n=38,909). Median survival time and 3-year survival rates are calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox-Proportional Hazard methods are applied to identify predictors of survival. Results: Overall, the 3-year survival rate improved from 33% in persons diagnosed with AIDS from 1985-1994 to 77% in persons diagnosed with AIDS from 1995-1997. For persons without an AIDS-defining condition and with a CD4 count under 200, the 3-year survival rate increased from 62% (1992-1994) to 86% (1995-1997). In the Cox-PH model, IDU was associated with worse survival compared to the largest risk group, MSMs (RH=1.1, 95% C.I.=[1.0,1.2], P=0.006) and heterosexual contact was associated with improved survival (RH=0.9, 95% C.I.=[0.8,1.0], P=0.02). Compared to persons diagnosed with AIDS when they were 20-29 years old (n=2,790), the 30-49 age group (RH=1.2, 95% C.I.=[1.1,1.3], p<0.001) and 50+ age group (RH=2.1, 95% C.I.=[2.0,2.3], p<0.001) had a worse survival. Persons who had at least one clinical condition at time of AIDS diagnosis had an increased risk of death (RH=3.2, 95% C.I.=[3.0,3.3], P<0.001) compared to persons without a clinical condition at time of AIDS diagnosis. Conclusions: A dramatic increase in the survival rate was observed. Risk group and opportunistic illness continue to play a major role in AIDS survival. Age at AIDS diagnosis was also a strong factor in predicting survival.
Learning Objectives: To describe survival trends and identify factors that predict survival for persons diagnosed with AIDS in Los Angeles County.
Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Surveillance
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.